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Scott Baker's avatar

I wonder if productivity is about to take an order of magnitude leap upwards. There are two major changes I see:

1. 3D printing is going large scale. Massive 3D printers can now print an entire house, though not all the fixtures, plumbing, wiring etc. But reports are coming in of houses printed in a few days that used to take weeks or months.

2. Factory-assembled modules, possibly using 3D printing indoors, may be about to really achieve economies of scale. The big impediment here has been the delivery constraints of the truck-bed, which is simply too narrow for what a crane could actually lift into place on the job site. It's the way highways and streets are made, for 2-passenger cars, that holds back this development aid. It would be interesting to see if areas where roads are not an issue - for example, on waterfront lots where barges can deliver huge modules - have the same issues. But even with this limit, it may become so much faster to construct multi-family modules in factories that this method adds great efficiency.

Also, it needs to be stressed that builders are being asked to comply with so many more codes, environmental goals (carbon neutral, etc.), and labor rules, that every gain in efficiency is probably clawed back by requirements in these areas. The famous Empire-State-Building-was-built-in-18-months example could never happen today.

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Bruce McKay's avatar

I wonder whether there is any data / analysis on the regulatory impost on construction, which clearly has increased over time.. Also Health & Safety…. Compared to 50 years ago we have loads more H&S requirements and far more regulatory intervention… so that must have an effect…. Firstly on output cost and secondly on time…. So maybe the productivity delivered by innovation has been absorbed elsewhere so the net effect is close of zero….

Note that I am not decrying the H&S requirements etc…. It’s just that over time these have increased and its not clear whether this effect has been measured…. A useful target for research?

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