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Amasa Amos's avatar

LLMs were able to improve so quickly because there was a huge preexisting corpus of language data that it could be trained with available for (practically) free on the Internet. There is no corpus of physical data in the required format of comparable size (VLAs are not sufficient for general purpose robotics, so images are not enough!), and building one will have a non-trivial cost, and require a great deal of expensive policy coordination. So I think there is reason to believe we will not see the same rapid improvement due to scaling that we saw with LLMs.

Tedd Hadley's avatar

Nice gentle introduction to the transformer!

> This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see the same sorts of rapid improvements with robot capabilities that we’ve seen with AI more generally, but it does make me think it might be possible.

The key challenge here, I think, is continual learning. LLMs used by agents get by without true learning by starting with trillion-parameter models that have been trained to generalize well across all text-based tasks, then adding million-length token windows with clever compaction/summary techniques.

I think that approach will eventually run out of steam in the physical world. Just too many degrees of freedom, too much noise, too much dependence on the exact situation.

At some point, robots will have to learn on the job. Of course that is a major architecture/algorithm overhaul. Some combination of on-device and cloud training, plus ways to learn new skills without catastrophic forgetting. Plenty of hard problems here, but also plenty of incentive to solve them.

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