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Aaron's avatar

Really good overview and write-up. The issue is that learning curves require standardization and investment. There is no entity in the current project-based real estate development model that has the control or incentive to invest. That's why the study from 1965 is still current.

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Leo Schlosberg's avatar

Other manufacturing is of standard products. We are not close to that in residential and even further in commercial construction. A real, though minor issue, is that other manufacturers do their production inside and do not have to deal with varying site conditions or weather. We once did identical GFRC pieces as part of the roof for identical office buildings. Because the construction sequence was not identical, the GFRC project became non-identical. Connections had to be revised. One of the mysteries in all this is what happened to all the cost and labor savings from things like factory made roof trusses, telescoping fork lifts, etc. Clearly some (but how much?) went into safety., not just of workers, but of occupants. 75 years ago steel was not fireproofed, doing so adds costs.

(see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_Lady_of_the_Angels_School_fire).

Also "doubling the size of a building just gets you twice as much building" is inaccurate. To go from 3 stories to 6 may add a lost of cost - elevators, a stiffer structure, etc. Other example abound that call a simplistic analysis into question. Non standard products require a non standard supply chain. It adds cost and complexity.

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