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Patrick Jensen's avatar

Did the bridges in the sample have comparable span and total lengths? One would assume new bridges display a strong survivorship bias towards increasingly challenging sites.

John Gillis's avatar

Great research, with this caveat.

I would have found the planning phase estimates to be more useful if they were devoted to the engineering/environmental related planning. I can't say for other readers, but when I think about how long a project is going to take I'm focused on the professional engineering planning (along with the construction period.) But using an announcement by politicians or bureaucrats at an agency as the start time isn't quite as clear cut as when the major professional contracts are let. When the civil engineers, and structural engineers are chosen and their clocks start, that could be a better start point. That would include enviro studies and surveys, but not include years of political fighting or zoning fighting or land purchase machinations. In sum, either when a competition is concluded and the designers are chosen or when a direct contract is established with the lead structural engineers, this approach would help limit what is otherwise a very open-ended idea of "planning" that leads to some of your listed projects going on for decades or a half century.

This approach would help avoid the future hypothetical example of the Strait of Messina bridge, which has been proposed for literally centuries, and which has had contemporaneous proposals since about 35 years ago. And even though some recent efforts have led to some engineering contracts, the reality is that the "planning" phase of the project hasn't started by my definition and only would do so when all the legal challenges are resolved and work is underway to do the detailed *design work* that leads to actual construction.

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