A recurring theme of this newsletter is the failure of prefabrication (building homes in factories instead of on-site) to revolutionize the housing industry. While it’s possible to build a successful construction business with prefabrication, it hasn’t swept away the old methods of building - building a home on-site remains the most common (and in most cases, the cheapest) way of building a house in the US. (Outside the US, prefabrication is often more popular, but it’s still not a
It’s also interesting to see in that graph that there was a second peak in the 1990s, not as high as the early 70s peak. But the two peaks had a different relationship between single family and multifamily homes, which might explain different factors leading to those peaks. It’s too bad that graph doesn’t go back to some of the earlier periods mentioned in the article, but it’s probably harder to get standardized information for those periods.
I noticed a couple typos in one of the last paragraphs (it says that 40 states had adopted 119.1 by 1945 even though it just said 119.1 was developed in the 1960s, and it says 2x2s were used instead of 2x2s).
Re: earlier data, it would probably be possible to go back another 10 years or so reliably, prior to that you're looking at pretty fuzzy reconstructions.
I started buying repossessed double and single wide trailers about 2003, mostly through a company called Green Tree, later Green Tree credit, servicing, ultimately purchased by Ditech, and now absorbed into some other banking conglomerate. The market was flooded with repossessions, from the 1990’s boom. The lenders would finance anybody at ridiculous interest rates. The sales prices were huge. The reo market was flooded., I bought a double wide that sold for 96k in 1997 for 7k in 2003. One double wide I paid $3,500 was 68k a few years earlier. And being a young man in my early 20’s we did about three a year. Bought and filled a 10 unit trailer park in 2007. These trailer deals ended about 2012 and priced have trended upwards for the last ten years but especially the last two years., maybe due to housing demand, lack of inventory, law of scarcity, but manufactured homes prices have tripled since the beginning of the pandemic. Central South Carolina. Let me know if you have any questions for your second article, I’d be happy to explain.
At some point it would be interesting to compare with Japan, where I've read that houses are culturally assumed to be more temporary. How does that affect how they're built?
Good comparison. I think there are more dimensions; traditional Japanese builds are one or two storey wood/bamboo construction due to things such as earthquake risk and indoor climate. If you actually look at the architecture - for instance at Koya-san - you will notice that, properly maintained, this seemingly fragile wood construction will still last for over a milennium.
I am currently building a manufactured home for my property. Everything I have seen compares to a stick build. And price wise very affordable. The one I live in now is 50 years old. Time for a new one.
I own a 1994 single wide. Recently resided it and updated the interior. It's already given me over 20 yrs I think with the upgrades I can go til retirement.
It's notable to me how the residential trailer park is largely absent from European cities, except for Roma, construction workers, or Circus members. A few people do live in housing comparable to them. In Germany I'm reminded of garden shacks at Kleingärten, which are mostly not legal dwellings but many people still live in them; mostly the shack is the traditional European alternative.
I believe the "mobile home craze" is driven by weather. Traditionally (1940s-90s) mobile homes weren't isolated at all I think, and the US is a more southerly climate than Northern Europe, with no internal borders so you may migrate south in winter in the US (but not in Europe). To get the baby boomers out of their shacks in years of high housing demand and utter destruction of the housing stock, what was done in Central Europe at that time was building (poorly insulated) Plattenbau-style prefab concrete apartments instead of mobile homes.
Fascinating to learn of the history!
It’s also interesting to see in that graph that there was a second peak in the 1990s, not as high as the early 70s peak. But the two peaks had a different relationship between single family and multifamily homes, which might explain different factors leading to those peaks. It’s too bad that graph doesn’t go back to some of the earlier periods mentioned in the article, but it’s probably harder to get standardized information for those periods.
I noticed a couple typos in one of the last paragraphs (it says that 40 states had adopted 119.1 by 1945 even though it just said 119.1 was developed in the 1960s, and it says 2x2s were used instead of 2x2s).
Thanks, typos fixed.
Re: earlier data, it would probably be possible to go back another 10 years or so reliably, prior to that you're looking at pretty fuzzy reconstructions.
I started buying repossessed double and single wide trailers about 2003, mostly through a company called Green Tree, later Green Tree credit, servicing, ultimately purchased by Ditech, and now absorbed into some other banking conglomerate. The market was flooded with repossessions, from the 1990’s boom. The lenders would finance anybody at ridiculous interest rates. The sales prices were huge. The reo market was flooded., I bought a double wide that sold for 96k in 1997 for 7k in 2003. One double wide I paid $3,500 was 68k a few years earlier. And being a young man in my early 20’s we did about three a year. Bought and filled a 10 unit trailer park in 2007. These trailer deals ended about 2012 and priced have trended upwards for the last ten years but especially the last two years., maybe due to housing demand, lack of inventory, law of scarcity, but manufactured homes prices have tripled since the beginning of the pandemic. Central South Carolina. Let me know if you have any questions for your second article, I’d be happy to explain.
At some point it would be interesting to compare with Japan, where I've read that houses are culturally assumed to be more temporary. How does that affect how they're built?
Good comparison. I think there are more dimensions; traditional Japanese builds are one or two storey wood/bamboo construction due to things such as earthquake risk and indoor climate. If you actually look at the architecture - for instance at Koya-san - you will notice that, properly maintained, this seemingly fragile wood construction will still last for over a milennium.
Japanese home buyers almost always knock down the existing house and build a new one.
I am currently building a manufactured home for my property. Everything I have seen compares to a stick build. And price wise very affordable. The one I live in now is 50 years old. Time for a new one.
I own a 1994 single wide. Recently resided it and updated the interior. It's already given me over 20 yrs I think with the upgrades I can go til retirement.
It's notable to me how the residential trailer park is largely absent from European cities, except for Roma, construction workers, or Circus members. A few people do live in housing comparable to them. In Germany I'm reminded of garden shacks at Kleingärten, which are mostly not legal dwellings but many people still live in them; mostly the shack is the traditional European alternative.
I believe the "mobile home craze" is driven by weather. Traditionally (1940s-90s) mobile homes weren't isolated at all I think, and the US is a more southerly climate than Northern Europe, with no internal borders so you may migrate south in winter in the US (but not in Europe). To get the baby boomers out of their shacks in years of high housing demand and utter destruction of the housing stock, what was done in Central Europe at that time was building (poorly insulated) Plattenbau-style prefab concrete apartments instead of mobile homes.
interesting.
looking forward to next parts.
especially curious to see if new companies like boxable and cover are solving the core issues with manufactured homes.