I also have a summary of an excellent book on Learning by Doing in the software industry. I think everyone interested in technological innovation should read it:
A fabulous read on an amazing subject. Hughes Snr. would be agog - and also proud that his own invention proved enduringly useful against the rapidly improving newcomer, defending the hardest cases.
Another masterpiece. I don't know how you do it, Brian!
A comment on the conclusion about learning rate as a function of time vs. learning rate as a function of volume:
Could that be framed in information theory terms? Suppose the combinatorial complexity of finding improvements is defined by the number of different combinations of variables that can be adjusted in a controlled experiment and their range of values. With anything more than a handful of variables and a small range, the complexity explodes into a space that is incredibly sparse in terms of optimal configurations of those variables, much less paths between them.
Given that sparsity, it seems likely that the most successful inventors (in terms of cumulative learning) would be those who explored the space faster rather than the inventors who might have the most clever algorithms for exploring the space.
And this indeed seems to be the case when you consider examples like Thomas Edison, Luther Burbank, Henry Ford, and Fred Dupriest.
This was a fantastic article about a seemingly arcane subject that really changed how I think about progress in technology. Really gives me hope for "breakthrough" progress in other fields through slow steady improvements in practice.
Oops. I just read this Substack about abiogenesis oil and then found this, and thought, now they can drill a hole deep enough to see whether that theory is true or not.
Thank you for this. It's not often I'll read a long article that isn't immediately important to me. This was worth it, not only to understand bit development (I began my career in oil exploration), but more importantly about how we learn and innovate. Well done.
Excellent article. I am very familiar with the shale gas industry, but I was not aware of the importance of polycrystalline diamond drill bits
You and your readers might be interested in my articles on the natural gas industry and its relationship to human material progress:
https://frompovertytoprogress.substack.com/t/natural-gas
I also have a summary of an excellent book on Learning by Doing in the software industry. I think everyone interested in technological innovation should read it:
https://techratchet.com/2020/01/22/book-review-learning-by-doing-by-james-bessen/
A fabulous read on an amazing subject. Hughes Snr. would be agog - and also proud that his own invention proved enduringly useful against the rapidly improving newcomer, defending the hardest cases.
Another masterpiece. I don't know how you do it, Brian!
A comment on the conclusion about learning rate as a function of time vs. learning rate as a function of volume:
Could that be framed in information theory terms? Suppose the combinatorial complexity of finding improvements is defined by the number of different combinations of variables that can be adjusted in a controlled experiment and their range of values. With anything more than a handful of variables and a small range, the complexity explodes into a space that is incredibly sparse in terms of optimal configurations of those variables, much less paths between them.
Given that sparsity, it seems likely that the most successful inventors (in terms of cumulative learning) would be those who explored the space faster rather than the inventors who might have the most clever algorithms for exploring the space.
And this indeed seems to be the case when you consider examples like Thomas Edison, Luther Burbank, Henry Ford, and Fred Dupriest.
This was a fantastic article about a seemingly arcane subject that really changed how I think about progress in technology. Really gives me hope for "breakthrough" progress in other fields through slow steady improvements in practice.
Oops. I just read this Substack about abiogenesis oil and then found this, and thought, now they can drill a hole deep enough to see whether that theory is true or not.
Very cool. I just read a Substack on abiogenic oil
Truly incredible Brian. Your work totally captures me
Thank you for this. It's not often I'll read a long article that isn't immediately important to me. This was worth it, not only to understand bit development (I began my career in oil exploration), but more importantly about how we learn and innovate. Well done.
I see the cost of Ti vs PV solar is corrected for inflation. Was the cost per meter drilled corrected for inflation?
Excellent article with a comprehensive look at the development path! Thank you for this (and prior) deep dives - I continue to learn a lot!
great article — there’s a stray parenthesis after “find ways to mitigate it”
"PDC bits had overcome their early teething troubles"—well bowled, sir.