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Brian Vallario's avatar

Of all the levers we have to adjust housing cost, I’m convinced this is probably the least effective - because as you pointed out, we’ve already done a pretty good job with what we have. Short of some massive engineering or material breakthrough, any savings are likely to come from financing or permitting efficiency. Plus, if it costs 15% less to build, that doesn’t necessarily move the market, it just increases the developers margin.

Mo Zhu's avatar

I think w/r/t the risk averseness of building officials, ICC-ES's ESR program is supposed to bless these new construction products. However, I found that ICC-ES has about 80% market share in the construction space and outstanding high margins compared to the broader TIC (testing, inspection, and certification) industry. More here: https://moinmybackyard.substack.com/p/icc-es-the-financial-engine-of-the. In short, I think they are undersupplying the market for construction product certifications, thereby choking off innovation.

I hadn't looked at the margins of the construction product manufacturers like Simpson, and was surprised they are so large. Simpson is a major user of ICC-ES's ESRs. Part of their high margins, I think, come from the rarefied legitimacy that the ESR grants them.

Still, overall, I agree in the big picture, squeezing some margin out of one tiny little component of a building isn't going to move the needle on the overall problem. However, I do think ICC-ES and the broader TIC market does sit at a bottleneck above construction innovation in general. Unbottlenecking that may be a win.

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